The enthusiast group Plug In America noted that U.S. sales of plug-in electric cars (either pure electrics or plug-in hybrids) will pass a significant milestone a month ago (May 2013). The 100,000 sales mark was reached just two and a half years after their introduction to the market in December 2010. Plug In America is commemorating the “historic” moment with an award contest and by launching a counter on its website that tracks EV sales. The counter is updated using sales data from the most recent published reports.

“Our current estimate, based on monthly sales figures from automakers, is that the 100,000th highway-capable plug-in vehicle will be sold on May 20,” said Tom Saxton, Plug In America’s chief science officer. “We are calling this the #PIA100K mark, and we are excited to see the continued growth of the market.”

The group also cited other side notes of the sales milestone:

• More than a quarter-million people are exposed daily to the benefits of electric transportation.
• Nissan dealerships in some select markets have reported that the Leaf has outsold all other Nissan models for particular sales periods this year.
• Tesla’s Model S is outselling the Mercedes-Benz S-Class (as noted in the Clean Fleet Report story from May 19) and other luxury competitors–the BMW 7 series and the Audi A8–for the first four months of the year.
• Chevy Volt drivers alone have logged over 187 million electric miles.
• The plug-in vehicle market is approaching 48 percent annual growth with both Battery Electric (BEV) and Plug-in Hybrid (PHEV) vehicles finding growing interest.
• The plug-in vehicle adoption rate exceeds the adoption rate of hybrid vehicles over the same time frame in their early market introduction.
• The domestic EV fleet now offers over 2,000 megawatts of battery storage, which may offer significant opportunities for the future management of our electrical grid and the increasing role of intermittent renewable energy sources
• Manufacturers making EVs now include Nissan, Tesla, GM, Ford, Honda, Mitsubishi, Toyota, BMW, Mercedes, and Fiat (see CFR article, The Top 10 Electric Vehicles You can Buy-Finally). These plug-in cars have received a wealth of consumer and industry awards.

Plug In America board member Barry Woods offered his take on the 100,000th sale in a recent Plug In America blog post. Here are some of his thoughts:

FORD FUSION PLUG-IN ENTERS GROWING MARKET

“Even as recently as six months ago, when I would go into auto dealerships to sell (electric vehicle) chargers, they would listen politely and tell me they had sold very few Volts or Leafs and their customers weren’t interested in charging stations.

“Now when I go into auto dealers, they invite me back to speak to their sales staff and discuss charging as an issue and what their customers will need to make better use of the car’s range capabilities.  Anecdotally, in March in Portland’s metro area, Nissan dealers collectively sold more 2013 Leafs than any other model- including the Altima- over 65 units between the four major dealerships. Tesla’s stock is up over 50% since the beginning of the year.  24,551 PEVs have been sold this year through April, practically matching the entire PEV [plug-in vehicle] sales for all of 2011.

“Over 95,000 PEVs have now been sold. We were correct about the prospects for growth of PEV technology, as their sales progress outpacing the growth of the hybrid vehicle over its first three years.  We were correct in believing that the American consumer would accept an alternative choice besides gasoline if the technology delivered performance and savings over the long haul.  A virtuous market- and policy-based cycle has developed to bring down prices and spur R&D. We appreciate that these vehicles are not just “green,” they are advanced vehicle technology creating better transportation choices and superior driving experiences.”

The sales are exciting, particularly for the enthusiastic early adopters of this technology. But, to keep the achievement in perspective, after more than a decade on the market hybrid vehicles account for only about 3% of the overall automotive market. Some analysts questioned whether plug-in models would take away sales from the non plug-in hybrid segment, but that doesn’t appear to be the case. While Toyota’s vast array of hybrid vehicles have seen decreased sales, the slack has been picked up by other entrants in the category, including Ford, Kia and General Motors as well as new models from VW and BMW. Additionally, it should be noted that the vast majority of plug-in sales are in California, the state that has mandated automakers to produce zero or near-zero-emission vehicles. Some of the plug-ins are not even available in other states while others are available only as lease vehicles, but not for sale.

Still, the 100,000 sales mark is significant, but it’s only the first step in a long road toward a mass market for plug-in electric cars. Keep in mind that the best-selling vehicle in America, the Ford F-Series pickup, sells that many models in less than two months, not two years. And keep in mind that traditional engines are getting more and more sophisticated and efficient, posing another challenge until purchase prices on electric cars come down. So celebrate, then buckle down for the task is just beginning.

This article originally appeared in Clean Fleet Report (www.cleanfleetreport.com). Used by persmission.

Here’s a Top 10 list you don’t want your city to be on, but it could have a silver lining if you’re looking at a zero emissions or near-zero emissions car. The researchers at Texas A&M Transportation Institute (TTI) compiled their annual ranking of the worst cities in the U.S. in which to try to drive somewhere. This study year (2011) they also added another metric to those of extra time expended, added cost and wasted fuel – CO₂ emissions added by congestion. Their list of the worst major cities in which to drive contains most of the usual suspects:

1.   Washington D.C.

2.   Los Angeles (tie)

2.   San Francisco-Oakland (tie)

4.   New York-Newark

5.   Boston

6.   Houston

7.   Atlanta

8.   Chicago

9.   Philadelphia

10. Seattle

The “good” news, if you can call it that, is that this year’s congestion measurements found about the same level of traffic frustration as last year, although the improving economy is expected to put that in the rear view mirror when 2012′s numbers come out.   The other bad news is the statistical significance of the difference in time spent idling in these cities is relatively little. And quite a few cities are just bubbling under the Top 10, including Miami, Dallas, Detroit, Nashville, Denver, Las Vegas and Portland. In other words, it’s slow-going out there. As TTI said in their press release announcing the report, “As traffic congestion continues to worsen, the time required for a given trip becomes more unpredictable.”  

Some cities are likely to seize on this report as a rationale to attempt to mitigate congestion and the attendant human and financial cost by introducing special zones designed to limit congestion and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. London did so several years ago and several other cities have followed suit. In London, since 2003, extra fees have been charged to drive into the downtown area, with exemptions for low or zero-emission vehicles. The charge has resulted in lighter traffic and reduced pollution while it has also raised revenue for the city.   These “Top 10″ cities are the most likely to attempt similar measures with similar goals, which could put owners of zero or near-zero emission vehicles at an advantage. Typically, they would escape any fees and/or be allowed to drive in zones that would otherwise limit traffic. It’s a logical extension of the perks extended to plug-in vehicles – some cities and states allow free parking, solo driver access to carpool lanes as well as offer financial incentives for the initial vehicle purchase.

A similar version of this article appeared in Clean Fleet Report, www.cleanfleetreport.com.

Never count the German engineers out in the modern automotive world. While they rule in the new (for the U.S.) realm of clean diesels, are renowned for their performance and luxury machines, and carry a price premium just for their nameplates’ country of origin – when it comes to EVs, the German automakers have not been seen as serious players. That may be changing.

During the past few months, I've had the chance to drive representative models from each of the German "Big Three" (BMW, Mercedes-Benz and VW). They represent slightly different approaches to the EV market but all are either already in the market or will be soon.

It must be said that the Germans were not enthusiastic about electric cars or hybrids early on. Oh, they had their concepts, but in interviews they downplayed the potential audience, performance and practicality of EVs. That was then, this is now. While not jettisoning the internal combustion engine, all three automakers are seriously engaged in the incipient electric market and their first forays are worthy of a strong look, even if they don't represent the companies' finished product.

BMW Active-E
This is BMW's last "test" before it launches its "e" sub-brand. It follows the Mini-E of a few years ago, their first step into the EV market. On the outside the Active-E is a standard BMW 1-Series sedan. But underneath is the running gear of the i3 (due on the market in late 2013), BMW's city car EV that will feature a carbon fiber monocoque and a unique body style. That running gear delivers what can only be described as BMW-like performance; it’s responsive, accelerates briskly and handles superbly. Regenerative braking is very aggressive and everything about the car says it’s ready for production. But the Active-E is only available in limited numbers on a two-year lease, part of BMW's program testing the i3 powertrain in the real world prior to its launch. The range is around 100 miles on a charge, typical of most of the EVs on the market.

Mercedes Smart ED
Full disclosure: I owned a Smart car for three years. Enjoyed it and thought it was better than its critics said it was, but fully acknowledge its limitations as a lightly-powered two-seat city car with limited (as in relatively short rides) freeway capability.

Turning the Smart into an EV is a natural. I can't tell you how many times I was asked about my own Smart's presumed electric drivetrain. My test drive was in the second generation electric Smart. First gen was a 100-unit Europe-only test with sodium-nickel chloride Zebra batteries. As a Daimler engineer told me, it was a "learning experience," that is, not very successful. The second generation I drove had a Tesla lithium-ion battery and the Tesla battery management system. The car was sluggish (it felt slower than my ICE-Smart) and seemed to offer little in the way of a positive driving experience. The governed top speed of 62 mph made the car a joke on California freeways, making one of the negatives of the ICE car even worse. Parking, of course, is a breeze, but it didn't need to be an electric model for that purpose.

Mercedes has already upgraded the second generation Smarts and has moved to the third generation aimed to correct some of the deficiencies I found in the model I drove. It will have a new electric motor and new, bigger batteries.

Mercedes also has another model waiting in the wings – an electric version of their A-Class, the smallest of the traditional Benz models. It uses the same electric drive as Mercedes' fuel cell model (which is based on the slightly larger B-Class) and Tesla Motors has also been involved in its development. The company has made no announcements about potential sale of the model outside Europe, but you can probably expect to see it migrate to the U.S.

And, literally as I was finishing off this post, Mercedes announcement of its latest E-Cell came over the wire. At the Paris Auto Show the company will reveal its latest joint project with Tesla--the B-Class electric. Previously shown as a Volt-like extended range electric, the new version of the B-Class sports electric power only and should be on the market by 2014.  

VW Golf-E
VW, as part of its quest to be the largest car company in the world, appears to want to be all things to all people. So, along with its direct-injection gasoline models and turbocharged diesels, it is now offering hybrids and soon – electric cars. The eGolf, which I've driven twice, is the test bed for its electric drivetrain. It's 26.5 kWh battery and 85 kW electric motor provide a spirited driving experience. Like the Active-E, it has fairly aggressive regenerative braking, but one which the driver can control by settings with relatively simple steering wheel-mounted controls. Its overall driving experience approximates that of an ICE Golf. VW also has Audi electric models and an Up! EV minicar in the works. While the company has made no official announcement, expect to see the eGolf late 2013 or 2014 on the new Golf platform that was just introduced.

Summary
While it may appear that German automakers are playing catch-up with electric drive cars, the slow market start of the past year may play into their timeline. The performance of the prototypes I have driven was certainly competitive with any EV on the market, so the issue may be less one of technology and more one of market strategy.

The automotive landscape is changing. More choices are coming and that promises to be the watchword for the coming decade. Buying a new car will no longer be: What model do you want? What color do you want? What options do you want?

Well, it will still be about options, but the options will be the type of powertrain and fuel you choose for your new ride. I took a tour in January through some of those choices and came away with a new appreciation of the challenge that plug-in vehicles are facing and will continue to face in the marketplace.

The event was called "Future Cars: Future Technology"; it was organized by Western Automotive Journalists, a 20-year-old group of auto writers (and photographers and videographers) based in Northern California. During the day, panelists discussed the long-range future of automotive technology--one panel talked about whether automated cars like the ones Google is running are likely to take over our highways; a second panel of engineers from the auto companies explored the variety of options they were researching for future cars.

But the real fun was outside where journalists could drive a variety of vehicles that illustrated the direction the industry is heading. I was already familiar with the fuel cell vehicles (the F-Cell from Mercedes and Toyota Highlander FCHV) as well as the electrics (the Mitsubishi i and

Nissan Leaf) and the plug-in hybrid (the Chevy Volt), so I chose to look deeper at some of the other contenders:
*Buick LeCrosse eAssist
*Honda Civic Natural Gas
*Mazda3 Skyactiv
*VW Passat TDI

These four vehicles represent a good cross-section of what may keep plug-in cars a "nice to have" technology rather than a "must-have." In order, they represent a so-called mild hybrid, a natural gas model and advanced gasoline and advanced clean diesel models.

The Buick is a large car, though classified as a mid-size, and feels it. Even though it has a four-cylinder engine, the battery assist adds to its launch power and provides not only good acceleration, but also 25 mpg in town and 36 mpg on the highway. And the whole package retails at about $30,000.

The compact Honda is deceptive. It looks and drives like the gas and hybrid versions of the Civic, but since it is fueled by natural gas, delivers 27/38 mpg fuel economy on a fuel that costs about half of what gasoline does per gallon. It retails for about $28,000.

The Mazda3 is a spunky compact with great performance. But even with that performance, the advanced gas engine and reworked transmission (and some other improvements) will deliver 28/40 mpg but retails for only about $19,000.

The Passat TDI, which was just named Motor Trend magazine's Car of the Year, is a mid-size car capable of delivering solid performance and 31/43 mpg for about $26,000.

The price points and performance of these models point us towards a challenging future. As tempting as the new technology of plug-ins is and as good as long-range fuel savings might look (and as enticing as avoiding direct fossil fuel consumption is), the advances in internal combustion engines, particularly if they're found in larger vehicles, are going to present consumers with some tough choices. It looks like the easy (as in easy on the pocketbook and with little lifestyle change) choices may be for more incremental changes in the near-term.

(A similar version of this story appeared in Plugincars,com http://www.plugincars.com/challenge-plug-cars-111923.html)

Another version of "Future Cars"

The relationship between Americans (I can't speak for other cultures, but I suspect this at least crosses the Atlantic) and cars is a special one. The first bonding, if you will, comes as a teenager approaches the age of aquiring first a learner's permit, then a full driver's license. The cars from that age become special in the mind of the new driver, particularly those beyond the reach of the novice of ordinary means.

I was lucky, coming of driving age during what most automotive critics routinely label as the glory days of the 20th century for cars--the 1960s. Muscle cars reigned and quirky sports cars from Europe were available and we hadn't yet focused on the negative aspects of the internal combustion engine.

The names alone evoke the time. GTO. MGB. Road Runner. Alfa Romeo. Cyclone. TR6. Javelin. The list could continue for pages. That alone signifies what an incredible time it was. 

Like most of my contemporaries, those enticing nameplates were well beyond my financial reach, but they remain to this day my automotive icons. My stories of the cars of that day, whether or not I actually got to drive them, continue to entertain succeeding generations.

But, I would propose that the driver coming of age this decade (2010-20) may have stumbled into a new golden age. It's a different time; in my day, the automotive discussion was all about performance and style and the currency was measured in 0-60 or slalom times, fuel injection and cubic inches. Now, the talk is as likely to run to grams/mile of CO2, esoteric battery chemistry or issues such as whether you want to own or simply rent a car.    

The new choice is not V6 or V8, but EcoBoost or CNG, Clean Diesel or Plug-in Hybrid. The choices go on and on and will continue to expand in the coming years. Already in Brazil the typical choice for their tri-fuel vehicles is: gasoline, ethanol or CNG.

More choice will be confusing for many consumers, but I think the coming generations will embrace it, make it the new normal and help usher in a new era of glory days. 

According to GMInsideNews.com, an independent website, General Motors will begin selling the Chevy Cruze with a diesel-engine option for the 2013 model year. It will be the company’s first diesel-powered passenger car in U.S. in decades. Workers at the Lordstown, Ohio, assembly plant where the Cruze is built were told about the diesel model last week (Feb. 15, 2010).

As news reports spread, GM officials quickly denied that this was part of their product plans, but their product chief Tom Stephens last year said the company was looking at adding a diesel engine to its passenger car line, so the story is consistent with those earlier pronouncements. 

Because the Cruze is essentially the same car worldwide, GM could utilize its 2.0-liter diesel engine already sold in several markets. According to specs from Australia, where the diesel Cruze is currently sold, the model delivers 41 mpg with its 5-speed manual and 34 mpg with the 6-speed automatic—using the Australian test cycle. It’s too early to tell, but a U.S.-based diesel-powered Cruze could compete on efficiency with the current gas Chevy Cruze Eco manual (28 city and 42 highway)—while offering much better performance.

With well over 200 ft-lbs of torque (compared to less than 150 in the Cruze Eco), a model powered by a 2.0-liter turbodiesel could handily beat the performance of the 1.4-liter turbo gas in the Cruze Eco model, though at a likely cost premium of several thousand dollars. The key to the added cost will be the route GM takes to reduce diesel emissions in order to meet California standards and sell the model nationwide.

Think Global

Car companies are increasingly leveraging global assets to create common worldwide product portfolios. Toyota and Honda, as well as Ford and Nissan most recently, are using the best technology from their far-flung centers of expertise, bringing high-volume cost-savings along with the latest features. In Toyota's case, this has led to a global push for hybrid vehicles. Nissan is leading an all-electric campaign, and Ford is championing its EcoBoost engines as the most cost-effective path the building cars that consumers will want to buy.

With automakers planning an impressive roadmap of new efficient models, consumers will also have to expand their worldview by learning which alternative technologies best suit their driving needs. For example, while the Chevy Volt plug-in hybrid can deliver 40-mile jaunts using only electricity, a diesel-powered Cruze might be the better option for drivers who frequently drive long distances. With an expected 40+ mpg rating on the highway, and power delivered throughout the torque curve—and most importantly a price tag that’s significantly lower than the Volt—a diesel Cruze could be compelling.

Diesel vehicles are well established as the fuel-efficient choice for the European market and elsewhere in the world, while carmakers have primarily focused on hybrid gas-electric technology as the high-mpg strategy for Americans. The potential introduction of a diesel Cruze could help break this pattern—and pave the way for automakers to mix and match diesel and hybrid powertrains, with some plug-in models thrown into the mix.

The distinctions between efficient gasoline, diesel, electric and hybrids are blurring in one other way: also according to GMInsiderNews, the 2012 Cruze will be get a push-button start, a feature commonly associated with hybrid and electric cars in the U.S., but now migrating across product lines to increase fuel economy.

Last November, Sergio Marchionne and his lieutenants spent a long day laying out the details of their plans for a new Chrysler that would compete on all fronts, including cars that would challenge the coming plug-in offerings from around the world. Since then, an EV version of the Fiat 500 has made the round of auto shows (and set to go on sale in 2012) and they've announced a government grant-funded test fleet of plug-in Ram pickups due out next year. And, of course, the company still sells the best-selling EV in the world, the GEM (full disclosure, a former Mightycomm client). Other than that, the company has been silent on plug-in vehicle plans while it struggles to right its balance sheets and bring new volume product to market.

At the Detroit Green Car Conference last week Chrysler's senior vice president for powertrain Paulo Ferrero might have been expected to elaborate on the company's strategy for electrification, since other speakers from Nissan, BMW and Think would be talking about their companies' EV strategies that were already being implemented. His presentation did include a slide or two on plug-ins, but with no new information other than a commitment to "develop a range of technologies for hybrid/electrification across various platforms." Pretty vague and clearly not a commitment to deliver vehicles on a timeline in sync with the competition.

Ferrero's big surprise -- natural gas vehicles! Turns out Fiat has CNG powertrains in a full range of vehicles already in Europe (where government incentives and utility support make them an attractive option) and they might find their way over here -- along with multi-air engines and a variety of improvements to the engines and transmissions that promise to deliver a 25% overall fleet average fuel economy improvement for Chrysler's fleet by 2014. 

This article also was published at plugincars.com. See www.plugincars.com/chrysler-has-EV-plan-it-says-so-42296.html 

Who would have thought an odd-shaped commercial vehicle produced in Turkey would be the harbinger of the future of the automotive industry?

Believe it. The Ford Transit connect appears to be the prototype of the near-future of an automotive industry in transition. In a word, that future involves choice.

At the turn of the previous century -- the early days of the 20th century -- consumers jumping into the new automotive world had to not only choose their vehicle and its size, color, options, etc., but also the powertrain/fuel. At that time they had three basic choices -- gasoline, electric and steam. The three systems divided up the market fairly equally. Fast forward a decade as the country paved more inter-city highways and the slow, short-range electrics and fast, but complex steam machines fell by the wayside to the efficient gasoline vehicles (which actually would run on a variety fo liquid fuels). 

So it looks like the Ford Transit Connect may lead the way to a similar time 100 years later. At the Chicago Auto Show, Ford introduced the electric version of the Transit Connect (as expected), but also showed a CNG-powered version outfitted as a taxi (an upgrade to the soon to be retired Crown Vics), which also could be a propane/LPG-powered. These versions will join the existing gasoline and diesel versions of the small commercial van that are currently on the market.  

But that's not all. In their Transit Connect consumer brochure, Ford makes the point that they are working on fuel cell technology as the ultimate zero emission vehicle. Since they've been running much smaller Focus compacts as their prototype fuel cell vehicles and the Transit Connect can clearly handle a hydrogen tank (which is the same size as a CNG one), that would add another choice.

So the customer walks into a Ford dealership, ready to add this vehicles to his/her fleet. After settling on the color and options, the big choices come:

• gas (or maybe E85 capable)
• diesel (or biodiesel/renewable diesel)
• electric
• CNG
• propane/LPG
• hydrogen fuel cell